About the model
This page simulates the effect of charter school's expansion or opening on the finances of public school districts.
The model shows enrollment changes and financial impact for K-8 only. The model uses
2014-2015 state data for each district, including total enrollment, number of schools, teacher salaries, per pupil
spending, and maximum class size. Data are available here: http://profiles.doe.mass.edu/state_report/
. It is based on what has happened to districts in the past when charters open or expand.
We (Stephanie Hirsch and Joe Calzaretta) are parents of three children in the Somerville Public Schools. Stephanie
Hirsch has spent almost 20 years working in the analysis of finance and operations data at the state and local level.
She studied finance at Harvard Business School and the statistics at the University of Chicago and she believes in
strong local government and strong community institutions. Joe is an MIT-trained software engineer and mathematician.
Contact us at firstname.lastname@example.org
What happens to funding when a child leaves the district for a charter school?
When students leave a traditional district for a charter, the district loses the local tax dollars that pay for that
student's education, not just the state aid. In comparison, when a student goes to a private school, the state
aid is lost but the tax dollars – usually most of the per pupil expenses -- stay with the community.
What assumptions does the model make?
How Students Leave: Based on prior real-life cases,
we assume that a new charter school will draw a certain number of students from the public school district every
year. (You can change this number in the projection.) Often new schools open
with one grade at a time, starting at K or at the start of middle school or high school. For the first year, there
will be a larger draw from Kindergarten than from the other grades. In the second year, there will be a larger
draw from 1st grade. This process continues for each year, targeting each successive grade level, until the ninth
year where there will be a larger draw from 8th grade. Specifically, the projection tries to draw 60% of students
from the targeted grade, and then draws the remainder from all grades equally. These students are chosen randomly
(to try to replicate what actually happens), which means that each run of the projection may result in slightly
What the District Does:
We assume that the district will try to close sections to save money, as section
teachers cost a certain amount per year. (We have added $18K to the teacher salary from the state data to account for benefits.
You can also change the teacher salary number in the projection. )
The district has a maximum allowable number of students per class section (You can change this number in the projection.) The district will keep the fewest number of sections without exceeding this maximum
class size. That is, each school will freely move students between sections in a grade in order to close class
sections, but students are not moved across grades or across schools, even if this would result in fewer class
sections. We based the maximum class size on the largest class size we found in the district’s data for grades
K-8 (however you can adjust that number in the model).
Other Details: We assume:
- Each section has one teacher.
- If the district is chosen from the dropdown, the K-8 enrollment for each grade
in each school in the district is initially chosen to match the 2014-2015 information published by the state.
(Note that this will differ slightly from actual enrollment, but it will be close). If the district is not chosen
from the dropdown, you can choose the number of schools and the initial number of students in the district, and the total district K8 enrollment is distributed evenly across grades and schools at the
start of the projection.
- The per pupil expenditure shown in the model has been reduced from the state data by 10% to account for the average effects of state facility aid (about 7%) and the deviation between the amount that districts pay for charter tuitions (about 3%). For districts that are currently making
tuition payments, they can find their payment and state facility aid in this report
http://www.doe.mass.edu/charter/finance/tuition/ and can plug it into the per-pupil spending to get a more precise
- Each district is assumed to have a number of support, intervention, and enrichment teachers at the start of the
projection. These teachers are assumed to have the same yearly salary as the class section teachers.
- According to state law, districts receive some funding during a transitional period when a student leaves. This
program aims to maintain full funding for a student the first year after she leaves the district, and then 25%
funding for each of the next five years, before dropping to zero funding entirely starting in the seventh year.
(Explained here: http://www.doe.mass.edu/charter/finance/tuition/Reimbursements.html)
However, this program has not been fully funded in recent years, and a significant gap remains in the FY17 Governor’s budget. Thus, the district only receives a fraction of each departed student's reimbursement each year (e.g. 59% of 100% in year one, and 59% of 25% in years 2-6). (The default level is 59%, however you can change this number in the projection to model different State funding scenarios).
Why is there such a big deficit?
As the projection progresses, the net loss of funding for departing students quickly becomes greater than the savings
in teacher salaries by closing sections. This is because too few students leave from any
one grade/school to close sections. Also, the district has fixed costs that don't disappear when a student leaves,
like the salary of a payroll coordinator or superintendent. To close the budget gaps, the district will need to
cut the extras — like reading teachers, school counselors, specialists (music/art), pre-kindergarten programming,
and any other student service or support. If the projection shows that these are completely eliminated, and the budget
drops below zero, it means that the district will need to cut costs in ways not accounted for by the projection.
What else can districts do to cover the deficits?
Instead of cutting enrichment and support, districts can close schools to cover the annual deficit. However, because
no one school will lose all of its students, this means moving students who remain in the shuttered school to a new
school. That’s a very disruptive and politically difficult, so sometimes doesn’t happen as planned. Alternately,
a city can cut other city services (e.g. recreation, health and human services, police/fire) to cover increased funding
for the schools.
How long will the deficits last?
With no cap, the deficits may continue until every school has been turned into a privately-run public charter school.
How can I see your code and math?